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Seven years ago, it took just a short phrase to ignite a Labour conference and to show Labour was becoming disillusioned with Jeremy Corbyn. While not exactly soaring oratory, the phrase were greeted with wild cheering as most of the hall stood for spontaneous acclamation.

When the noise subsided, the then-Brexit spokesman, remained at the lectern, blinking in surprise. He wasn't really accustomed to his addresses producing such a reaction. His statement was simply: "Nobody is ruling out remain as an option". Context, however, is key.

During that deeply polarized period of 2018, departing from his agreed text like this was inevitably viewed as issuing a challenge to the party leader, who was trying to prioritise Brexit voters in working-class seats over the Europhile sentiments within Labour. In just one speech, this grey-suited shadow Brexit secretary was transformed – if only for a while – into a risk-taker who championed the party's base against a leader he would later replace.

The Shift of Stance and Closed Debates

Since then, the landscape has shifted, not least to Starmer himself. One of his first acts upon assuming leadership from Corbyn in 2020 was declaring the EU question was resolved by the previous year’s general election. During the most recent campaign, he consistently stressed manifesto “red line” promises that ruled out rejoining the European Union or its core structures.

Like his predecessor, the PM's approach has been to pursue Brexit-y voters in key seats, even if survey data indicates a significant number have died or changed their minds.

Pressure Building on the EU

However, the tables have turned and the prime minister’s turn to be an embattled Labour leader. While Europe may not be the boiling pot in UK politics, a lid which was tightly sealed for five years is starting to loosen again.

Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have intensified the rhetoric regarding the damage caused by Brexit has inflicted on the UK’s economy. This serves as an effective tool to criticize Nigel Farage, who now rarely mentions his flagship policy was once his singular purpose and remains his only real achievement.

And yet, the scale of the damage, reportedly has resulted in a national economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller compared to EU membership, towers over the minor adjustments so far offered by ministers. The PM's much-touted relationship reset agreed with Brussels last summer offers economic benefits quantified in low decimal points.

Internal Pressure & Bolder Ideas

The chancellor is among those attempting to bypass entrenched interior ministry opposition to a broader scheme of a growth-enabling youth mobility scheme allowing youths can move between Britain and Europe to study or work.

David Lammy has pondered publicly regarding the clear advantages of being in a customs union with the EU, as several Labour backbenchers, such as the head of the powerful finance committee, recently supported a Liberal Democrat motion on joining one.

While the Europe minister, who oversees UK-EU relations, who is now attending all cabinet sessions, insists the red lines remain unchanged, there exist avenues these could be bypassed. One idea would be to announce the start of negotiations now for a more ambitious agreement, for inclusion in the next manifesto, with implementation only if Labour won a fresh mandate.

The Prime Minister's Fundamental Doubts

However, Starmer has most recently pouring cold water again cautioning that a return to an EU customs arrangement could undermine the commercial agreements with America, which he views as signature achievements of his premiership.

Reportedly that Starmer's doubts run even deeper, and is rooted in three further factors.

1. First, he believes a customs pact is now significantly more difficult as ministers are busily de-aligning from European rules across a range of policy areas, including the environment.
2. Second, the exorbitant price set for the UK for entry into the EU’s new defence fund and the subsequent collapse in talks has led UK negotiators that former EU partners have little interest in offering favorable terms to the UK and are more focused on proving that leaving the EU was a mistake.
3. Thirdly, the new US national security strategy, which has been welcomed by Moscow, is viewed by key advisors in Downing Street as grounds for Britain to keep its distance from Europe.

An Alarming Document & Geopolitical Calculations

This bizarre and terrifying document asserts Europe is threatened by “civilizational erasure” due to Muslim migration. It includes only one reference of the UK, placed beside a proposal that Donald Trump’s administration will intervene in our politics to foster the rise of nationalist movements.

However, instead of deciding that this renders the US an unreliable partner, the government is worried that deeper EU integration could upset the global balance by risking fragile US military support for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.

Leadership Speculation & The Ghost from the Past

All of which brings us back to 2018. The PM has consistently stated his speech was not an attempt to become leader but simply an attempt to preserve the “option” of remain in a future vote. Indeed, in those days, he still supported a “bespoke customs union deal” of the kind he now appears to be opposing.

Observers within the Prime Minister's office note that Wes Streeting, widely considered would stand in any leadership election, is part of a clutch of cabinet ministers letting it be known they desire greater ambition on Europe.

Staff for the Deputy Prime Minister, another likely contender in a contest for the top job, maintain she won’t discuss her stance regarding a customs pact as it would merely “escalate unhelpful speculation”.

The Clear Risk & A Wise Memory

The risk is clear. Should the PM reject significant moves towards a close relationship, he cedes ground to claim the territory where the overwhelming majority of Labour MPs, members and voters are to be found.

It would be prudent for Starmer to recall the impact just a few words had on his career seven years ago. There are options for a major proposal on Europe which the PM should not “rule out”; he should prise them open himself, before someone else adopt them as their own.